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TECHNOLOGY LIFE CYCLE ANALYSIS MODELLING BASED ON PATENT DOCUMENTS
Lidan Gao(高利丹); Alan L Porter; Jing Wang; Shu Fang(方曙); Xian Zhang(张娴); Tingting Ma; Wenping Wang; Lu Huang
2011-07-20
会议名称The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis(FTA)
会议录名称FTA and Grand Societal Challenges: Shaping and Driving Structural and Systemic Transformations
会议日期2011-05-12~2011-05-13
会议地点Spain, Seville
会议主办者European CommissionJoint Research CentreInstitute for Prospective Technological Studies
摘要To estimate the future development of one technology and make decisions whether to invest in it or not, one needs to know the stage status of its technology life cycle (TLC). The major approach to analysing TLC uses the S-curve to observe patent applications over time. But using the patent application counts alone to represent the development of technology oversimplifies the situation. In this paper, we build a model to calculate the TLC for an object technology based on multiple patent-related indicators. The model includes the following steps: first, we focus on devising and assessing patent-based TLC indicators. Then we choose some technologies (training technologies) with identified life cycle stages, and finally compare the indicator features in training technologies with the indicator values in an object technology (test technology) by Nearest Neighbour Classifier, which is widely used in Pattern Recognition, to measure the technology life cycle stages of the object technology. The method and result of this study can be used in management practice to enable technology observers to determine the current life cycle stage of a particular technology of interest.
关键词Technology Life Cycle Patent Indicator Cathode Ray Tube Thin Film Transistor Liquid Crystal Display Nano-biosensor
学科领域情报研究理论与方法
语种中文
文献类型会议论文
条目标识符http://ir.las.ac.cn/handle/12502/3823
专题中国科学院成都文献情报中心_情报研究部
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Lidan Gao,Alan L Porter,Jing Wang,et al. TECHNOLOGY LIFE CYCLE ANALYSIS MODELLING BASED ON PATENT DOCUMENTS[C],2011.
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