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Title: TECHNOLOGY LIFE CYCLE ANALYSIS MODELLING BASED ON PATENT DOCUMENTS
Author: Lidan Gao(高利丹) ; Alan L Porter ; WangJ ; Shu Fang(方曙) ; Xian Zhang(张娴) ; Tingting Ma ; Wenping Wang ; Lu Huang
Issued Date: 2011-07-20
Conference Name: The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis(FTA)
Conference Date: 2011-05-12~2011-05-13
Conference Place: Spain, Seville
Keyword: technology life cycle, patent, indicator, cathode ray tube, thin film transistor liquid crystal display, nano-biosensor
Subject: 情报研究::情报研究理论与方法
Abstract: To estimate the future development of one technology and make decisions whether to invest in it or not, one needs to know the stage status of its technology life cycle (TLC). The major approach to analysing TLC uses the S-curve to observe patent applications over time. But using the patent application counts alone to represent the development of technology oversimplifies the situation. In this paper, we build a model to calculate the TLC for an object technology based on multiple patent-related indicators. The model includes the following steps: first, we focus on devising and assessing patent-based TLC indicators. Then we choose some technologies (training technologies) with identified life cycle stages, and finally compare the indicator features in training technologies with the indicator values in an object technology (test technology) by Nearest Neighbour Classifier, which is widely used in Pattern Recognition, to measure the technology life cycle stages of the object technology. The method and result of this study can be used in management practice to enable technology observers to determine the current life cycle stage of a particular technology of interest.
Sponsorship: European CommissionJoint Research CentreInstitute for Prospective Technological Studies
Source: FTA and Grand Societal Challenges: Shaping and Driving Structural and Systemic Transformations
Language: 中文
Content Type: 会议论文
URI: http://ir.las.ac.cn/handle/12502/3823
Appears in Collections:中国科学院成都文献情报中心_情报研究部_会议论文

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Recommended Citation:
Lidan Gao,Alan L Porter,Jing Wang,et al. TECHNOLOGY LIFE CYCLE ANALYSIS MODELLING BASED ON PATENT DOCUMENTS[C]. 见:The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis(FTA). Spain, Seville. 2011-05-12~2011-05-13.
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